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CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS
  Revised:August 15, 2019
KeyWords:Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations  tropical cyclone  intensity  track
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Author NameAffiliationE-mail
TIAN Hong-jun 1. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 China
2. Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030 China
3. National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 China
4. Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China
5. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100029 China
6. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 China 
 
LI Ze-chun   
WANG Dong-liang  wangdl@typhoon.org.cn 
WANG Bin   
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Abstract:
      Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.
DOI:10.16555/j.1006-8775.2019.04.001
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